Patterns on the Horizon:
Trends in housing are somewhat difficult to predict. Yes, the need for shelter is absolute. Everyone needs a place to stay which leads to universal demand. But what is adequate or desirable shelter? For example, when relocation buyers come to Rhode Island they were often told that a four bedroom, two and a half colonial is the most popular house in Rhode Island. It is size of and type of house that the average Rhode Islander would buy. The problem with that advice is that the average Rhode Islander cannot afford to buy it. Additionally, the probable buyer is more likely to be a relocation buyer rather than an average Rhode Islander. The advice is also self serving: the majority of houses in any given suburban community are colonials. No there is nothing wrong with four bedroom colonials. They are great function floor plans and they do in fact sell and re-sell well. They have served Rhode Island families for four centuries very well.
Patterns are influenced by choices. In Rhode Island, the range of choice is more limited than many other areas of the country. Hopefully, the ideas from other part of the country will cross pollinate here. The choices available influence the trends. Housing trends changes move slowly.
What trends might do we expect to see in the next ten years? Here are our Seven:
1. Quality over quantity.
2. Intuitive Smart Homes
3. Media Centric Homes
4. Function over formal
5. Carbon Neutral, “GREEN.” houses: Super Energy Efficient
6. Multi-generation/extended houses
7. High Personalized new construction
Quality over quantity:
There is an obvious difference between a Scion and a Ferrari. They are both cars. They are however compared on quality, not quantity. That has not been the case in real estate. Baby Boomers in particular were focused on the cost per square foot. It was a crude measuring stick that did not account for high end quality. A large box house tended to sell more quickly because of its perceived high value on a cost per square foot basis. That has changed and will change even more. People now want the best quality for the dollar, not the most square footage. Features and superior materials will be the most important element of value. Bigger is not necessarily better.
Intuitive Smart Homes:
One best change will be the move to smart houses. Digital management centers will become the norm. Imagine walking into your home at the end of the day and with voice commands adjusting the temperature, opening blinds, turning on the computer or entertainment center, or even drawing a bath. This technology will allow you to control the systems in your house remotely from a computer, pda, cell phone or smart phone.
Imagine being able to watch what your kids are doing when you are out to dinner. All of theses systems will be standard. What will be innovative will be ability for the house to ‘know’ that you have walked in. It will adjust the house to your personal preferences. What kind of music do you want to hear? What temperature to you like? What rooms are you likely to use? Imagine the home gym ‘knowing’ what work out you need to do today. Imagine having a digital conference family reunion from your home.
Media Centric Homes:
One thing the thirty some things and twenty some things have taught us: media should be experienced in the broad and grand sense. Home theatres will replace living and family rooms. The home theatre will be the keeping room of old. Family recollections will be of the DVD we saw and discussed. In some ways this room will become more important than the dining room, particularly for family interchange. Additionally, monitors will be located throughout the house. Security, communication and entertainment will be engaged from anywhere in the house and without manual equipment. Think it, say it, and it will be.
Function over Formal:
Among the more noticeable changes will be the move from ‘formal houses and formal rooms’ to functionalism. Every space in the house will have use. The duality of family space and formal space is ending. The space is simply too valuable to use for special holidays and guests. How many times were you in your parents’ formal living room?
Those days are now past and will be a distant memory in ten years. Given the cost to build, given the taxes, given the energy requirements, the shoe size of the house will fit the foot and the Velcro will be snugly fastened.
Carbon Neutral, “Green” Houses: Super Energy Efficient Houses
Each of us produces a carbon foot print. How much energy do we use? As Americans our energy foot prints are XX-Large. Over the next ten years, we will witness and participate in a major reduction in our energy shoe size. Many specific behaviors can produce major reductions in energy: energy saving light bulbs, high efficiency appliances; alternative fuel heating systems, tightly insulated houses, high efficiency windows, etc. Some things are fashionable for a year or two; this trend, however, will become ‘normal.’ Long term we will see smaller houses. Wind power and solar power houses will also become so common that they will not even illicit comment. Motivation will range from: environmental concerns, national security-patriotism, and family economics, to name a few.
Multi-generational and Extended Family Homes:
As the price of housing has increased and affordability has become more difficult, many families have purchased larger house together. We believe this trend will continue. The single biggest constraint tends to be city /town zoning rules. Multi-generational families will want to stay in their neighborhood. The cities and towns will change to allow for this trend.
Highly Personalized New Construction
Today, cars, clothes and computers are all customized, made to a buyer’s specific requirements. This expectation is going to migrate to housing. Houses will be constructed more quickly and buyers will be more involved in the build out from its inception. 3 dimensional soft ware, today, can give the buyer a ‘virtual look at their house.’ Tomorrow the buyer will make these choices directly. The day of the colonial as the ‘best’ urban option is waning. The re-construction of many existing homes will also be high personalized. It will be done ‘your way.’
Some of these trends may seem obvious; they are exciting and just around the corner.
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