Sellers are trying to understand the market. Buyers have figured it out. Buyers have the upper hand. In some instances, they have the only hand. Rather than expound on the obvious, (it is a buyers market), it makes sense for seller’s to learn what the fundamentals are.
For the past forty plus years, most sells relied more on competing properties to determine value. Clearly sellers needed to look at closed transactions, but the philosophy was price ‘to’ your competition. The assumption has been that there is demand and that the delta between demand and supply was always within realms of reasonable. Some markets were sellers markets and some were buyers’ markets. This market is so extreme that the approach of pricing ‘to’ your competition is now obsolete.
Sellers must price to the price that will generate a sale, not traffic (showings) or interest. In the Rhode Island market generally, distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, make up almost half of the market. Simply stated, sellers are competing against foreclosed and short sale properties. This means that prices will be lower. In many neighborhoods prices have continued to go down. That makes pricing very difficult.
So what are the numbers that a seller needs to know to price his or her house: First, he or she needs to know about the recently (90 days) closed properties. The absorption rate, how fast are houses selling, is also important. It is usually ‘figured’ in terms of months. How many months will it take to sell all of the properties currently listed and the current rate of sales?
The interest rate is very important. The mostly buyer of your home is going to have a mortgage. Need to understand what the mostly type of buyer your home will appeal to. If it is a first time homebuyer, it is mostly that the loan will be 90 or 95%. Take the time to determine want the potential buyer need to pay on a monthly basis. Most sellers ignore this step, ‘the price is the price.’ But in a market with higher unemployment and limited wage growth, what the buyers can afford to pay will have a profound impact on the sales price. The number you need is the monthly cost of Principle, Interest, Taxes and Insurance (PITI) for a buyer with a 10% down payment. This is what it will cost the new buyer to live in your home.
Two numbers are very misleading: days on market and the list price/sales price ratio. Days on market are difficult to us as each listing agreement starts at day 1. So if a house has been listed three times, the totals days on market may be 430, but the MLS reports that days on market are at 76. You want to look at the ‘property history’ to get a true picture of the total days on market. List price sales price ratio is also difficult and distracting. First because of the multi listing agreement situation just described, but also because of the price adjustments during the listing. If a property was originally listed at 475k and was reduced to 425k and sold at 400k…Which numbers do you compare? Clearly you need to build into your price room to negotiate. You will get there much sooner if your original list price is at or below other sold properties, not other competing properties. (There are still a number of sellers who are shopping for their price. Even if you find a naïve buyer the appraisal process will prevent the buyer from being able to over pay. So as a seller you need a naïve cash buyer to have a chance of selling above the market. Those buyers are 1 in a million.)
Ultimately, you need arrive at a list price that is not competitive, but compelling. You need that price that says to a buyer, we are a great value, not simply a fair value. We have a significant oversupply; price is the only ‘cure.’
One final number you need: a phone number to your local Realtor. This market is uncharted. You need expert advice to analyze and interpret the numbers. Many Realtors, including this one, work on a contingent fee. If successful in selling the property, he, she or I am paid. That is a really pro consumer model. Get professional advice. According to the National Association of Realtors, unrepresented sellers end up netting 16% less after success fee (commission) than represented sellers. Make sure the Realtor you hire is a full time, experienced licensee with a record of sales in this market. It is also appropriate to interview more than one Realtor to represent you. Finally, ask about the success fee (commission). It may be more competitive that you expect. Ask if the Realtor has a variable rate fee, which can be other, (most often lower), if both ‘halves’ of the sale, seller half-buyer half, are completed by the listing firm. That will also involve a conversation about agency and representation. Who represents whom?
You have enjoyed the shelter that home ownership has provided. Make sure to ‘capitalize’ as much as the market will allow when you sell. But that requires that you be realistic and reasonable.
The Numbers the Sellers Need:
1. Sales Price of Comparables (90 days)
2. Absorption Rate (Months)
3. Interest Rate
4. Monthly Payment (PITI)
5. Realtor’s Phone Number
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